We're past the halfway point of the Fall 2024 season of the Tucson Basketball League and we're in that sweet spot of the schedule where the strengths and character of most teams have become evident and the scheduling of competitive games becomes easier to do. This past Sunday, we had:
The Suns 59, Soul Snatchers 57
Heat Check 79, Hawgs 77
Product 58, La Tuza 54
Marana Monarchs 50, Dawgs 48
Dad Bods 53, Bisbee 50
The Show 74, East Side High 70
Sikhos 65, Mansfield Ballers 63
YSL 57, Z Fighters 54
And, in our highlight game of the day, APEX outlasted Air Jesus, 69-67, in overtime. It was one of those games played at high speed. Both squads had multiple ball-handlers and both liked to push the ball up the floor. The high talent level on both teams helped keep the game from degenerating into a rugby match. It was very fast and very clean. Still, in games like that where there aren't a whole lot of fouls, it often comes down to free throws. APEX held a one-point lead with seven seconds left. Air Jesus got off a long three that missed, but an Air Jesus player got the offensive rebound and got a shot off right at the buzzer. He was fouled.
A quick math lesson. If you have two independent events, each with its own probability, the odds that both things will happen is the product of the two probabilities. Flip a coin and the chance that it will come up heads is 1/2 (.50). The chance that a second toss will land heads is also 1/2 (.50), so the odds that both tosses will land heads are 1/2 times 1/2 = 1/4 or .50 times .50 = .25. With two coin tosses, the possibilities are heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads, and tails-tails. So you're twice as likely to get one of each than to get two of either one.
A 70% free-throw shooter has a 70% chance of making either shot, but only a 49% chance of making them both. A 50% free-throw shooter who gets fouled shooting a three-pointer has less than a 13% chance of making all three.
Getting back to the APEX-Air Jesus game. Down one, no time on the clock, two free throws. Obviously, the most-likely outcome is that he makes one and misses one.(Technically, THE most-likely outcome is that he misses one, then makes one. People are slightly more likely to miss the first one.) He does the former--swishes one, bricks one, on to OT. Really good game.